Every time we make a decision, we reduce the probability of some risks but may increase the probability of other risks. Consider where the following story may fit into our discussion.

We have a project that should have, in fact, started months ago to meet the desired production introduction date.  Unfortunately, that did not happen so we are now scrambling to make the desired introduction date.  To make the proposed delivery date, we must find a way to meet the project objectives in a shorter time.  We can do this by either reducing scope or reducing quality securing activities associated with the project.  Our prototype part development sequence is in fact a risk reducing activity (see our previous post https://valuetransform.com/prototype-parts-and-product-development-lifecycle).

The project manager decides the way to make the schedule work is to eliminate the first level of prototype parts.  Eliminating this step reduces the time to make corrections to faults found during the development work.  We are now pressed up against the tooling schedule and the subsequent creation and the final production part.   By selecting this as the alternative to reaching the production date, we have exposed the project and our company to risk. For example, by funding the tooling before learning about the design by analyzing the prototype parts, we are now at risk of losing or increasing the tooling cost for our project. In addition to the cost risk, we have a schedule risk in any tooling rework that may be required.  Lastly, if there is no additional loop added to account for the tooling rework, we have also introduced a quality risk.

Perhaps the appropriate solution could have been a reduction of the scope of the project while keeping the same prototype phases. It could have also been interesting to explore changing the production date. In the end, the actual project schedule did not fare too well.  The prototype phases, while called something different, still happened, and the scheduled introduction date was not the original release date.